Morning Briefing : 28-Jun-2011 -0400 GMT

By: Milla Shaw in Forex Consultant on Jun. 27, 2011

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US markets closed higher yesterday. Dow was up 0.91% and the Nasdaq was up 1.33%. Technically the Support in 11900850 on the Dow is holding well now and it will have to be seen whether a fresh upmove is on the cards.

The Asian markets are trading in green except for China. Shanghai is trading slightly lower . Nikkei is up by 1.08%. The Sensex and Nifty has closed higher yesterday but they have important Resistance near 18700 and 5600 respectively which needs to be watched.


COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude is trying to bounce back from its significant Support near 90, but is no gaining upside momentum. A strong rise from current levels might see a rise once again to 9496. Else a test of 8887 on the downside is on the cards.

Gold dipped below 1500 yesterday and has bounced back from the low of 1490.80. As mentioned yesterday, a test of 147560 is possible in the coming days while below 152025.

Silver is looking weak. It has dipped below 34 and is keeping up the chances of seeing 3231 on the downside.

Copper continues to trade flat between its sideways range of 4.0020.


CURRENCIES
Good bounce in Euro from the low of 1.4102. Support is seen at 1.4265 and while it holds a further rise to 1.4400 is possible today. DollarYen retains its 8081 sideways range. The EuroYen Cross has risen sharply but has important Resistance in 116.0020 region which if holds might pull it down once again to 115.00114.50.

The Pound remains weak and is struggling to see a strong rise past its 1.600035 Resistance region. A break above 1.6035 would increase the chance of a rise to 1.620050. DollarSwiss looks mixed within its overall downtrend and is ranged between 0.83000.8400. We will have to wait for a breakout of this range. Aussie has bounced back above the 21WeekMA and could extend its upmove to 1.0600 if a strong break above the 1.04850500 Resistance region.

In Asia the Sing Dollar is trading near 1.2410 and the Korean Won is trading near 1080. DollarRUpee might dip below 45 to test its Support at 44.85 given the overall weakness in the dollar.


INTEREST RATES
Greece may see investors getting encouraged for roll over of bonds. In a proposed plan, the investors will receive 30Y bonds with coupon of 5.5% and a bonus linked to rate of Greek GDP. Yield of 10Y Greek bond remained stable at 16.8%; we expect to come down to 15% in couple of months.

The US bonds yields have inched up across all tenors between 6bps to 9bps. Note, increase in 2Y yields by 6 bps to 0.41% compressed the German and US 2Y yield differential to 99bps against 114 bps on Jun 24. Increase in German yields remained ranged between 2bps to 6bps across all tenors, 10Y yields hit 2.9%.

In India, overnight and 3M Mibor have came off by 4 bps and 9bps to 7.65% and 9.54% respectively

 

DATA TODAY
4:00 GMT US Cons Conf
…Expected 61.1 …Previous 60.8

13:00 GMT US Case Schiller
…Expected 3.9% …Previous3.6%

DATA YESTERDAY

May US PCE Price Index M/M
…Actual 0.0% …Previous 0.4%

May US Personal Income
…Actual 0.3% …Previous 0.4%

 

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