Every year around this year I produce a list of my most popular posts from the last 12 months, so I thought it was worth carrying on the tradition this year. I didnt think I had had been so active on this blog this year, but I actually wrote a lot more posts than last year.
If you made a resolution to get out of debt this year (or at least get started paying off your debt), then a debt diet is what you need. Because getting out of debt isn’t an easy process, I created a 5-week Debt Diet eCourse to help you build the foundation to getting out of debt.
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WTI Crude oil, which has rallied strongly since mid December, closed yesterday at the highest level in eight months rallying by 4.2 percent on the first trading day of the year. The strong performance is based on a combination of increased geopolitical risk in Iran, improved economic data from the U.S. and China (the world’s two largest consumers of oil) and a softer dollar. Geopolitical risk however is the main engine that has kept this rally going and with many traders entering the new year with flat positions on their books this has been the catalyst for the buying seen so far. The risk however is that the global economy in its current fragile state will not be able to cope with higher prices at this stage and further price rises, which act as an extra tax on the consumer, raising the fear of a disorderly sell-off once the tensions in the Middle East ease. For Read the full article…
As discussed in today’s FOREXYARD Daily Analysis, overstretched market positioning has allowed for a bit of a EUR short squeeze on the back of a solid Spanish bond auction and strong US housing numbers.
The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows speculators in the futures market have built their largest EUR short position since May 2010. As of last Tuesday speculators were holding -116k contracts short, up from -95k. The one sided positioning highlights the market’s pessimism against the EUR but also brings the possibility of a short squeeze.
Today’s short squeeze has helped the EUR/USD rise as high as 1.3120. There is short term resistance in this area as the 200-hour moving comes in at 1.3135. Also
Quick update: Dollar retreats further in early US session as risk appetite is given a lift by strong US data. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly improved to three year low of 366k in the week ended December 10. Empire state manufacturing index rose to 9.5 in December, highest level in seven months. Philly Fed survey also rose to 10.3 in December. Industrial production, though, dropped -0.2% in November. TIC capital flow dropped sharply to 4.8b in October. DOW rebounded strongly to 11967.74 but pares some agains as the sesssion goes on.
The SNB left the target range for 3-month Libor at 0-0.25% and the “minimum exchange rate” at CHF1.20 per EUR. The decision was widely expected by the market but we believe the central bank might raise the limit of EURCHF in coming months should the economic outlook deteriorates further.
EURO, JAP YEN and EUROYEN
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EURUSD, USDJPY and EURJPY by registering at
USDCHF @ 0.9430/33…Watch Support in 0.94009390 region
R: 0.9480500 / 0.9550 / 0.960030
S: 0.9400390 / 0.9350 / 0.9300
It was a surprise and sharp fall in the DollarSwiss today from 0.9547 to 0.9404. The SNB’s move to leave the rates and the EURCHF fixing rate unchanged triggered this sharp fall. The pair is now trying to bounce back from its low now. Support is seen in 0.94009390 region and it needs to be seen whether this Support region continues to hold or not. A break below this Support region can take it further down towards 0.935000.
Looking for another shot at buying up the British pound? Well, you may get your chance soon enough! GBP/USD has been trading between 1.5750 and 1.5600 for over a week now, and it looks as though it’s about to test the bottom of the range. With Stochastic showing oversold conditions and a bullish divergence, it seems as though the pair is due for a turnaround. If buyers take control once again, expect them to bring the pair back up to the top of the range. On the other hand, if sellers manage to push GBP/USD below 1.5600, they could force to pair to forge a new monthly low.
Will you look at that – another solid range!