We are still a few weeks away from the Q3 earnings season, which starts as per tradition with Alcoa on 12 October after-market. Hence next week’s list is short with Hennes & Mauritz among the few big companies to report. Consensus looks for H&M EPS (adjusted) to decline to SEK 2.029 from 2.572 in Q2 and 2.564 in Q3’10. Sales are also expected to 26.8 billion from 27.6 a quarter ago. The list can be found here.
The euro bounced off of its lows for the day despite S&P downgrading the credit rating of Italy. Today’s price action may be seen as a consolidation with markets awaiting results from the Fed’s meeting. Market players may be looking for further EUR declines as speculators have built their largest position against the EUR since early August.
The majors have been unable to find direction today as many participants are eyeing tomorrow’s FOMC statement. Expectations are for some form of “Operation Twist” with the likeliest path being the Fed purchasing US Treasuries at the long end of the curve using the proceeds from the maturing MBS the Fed holds on its balance sheet. This could be a positive for the USD if the Fed goes this route versus an expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. This stands in contrast to the ECB, BOJ and BOE who are likely to increase their balance sheets in the near term.
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First up is a simple setup on EUR/CHF’s 4-hour chart. The euro has been hugging a rising trendline since last week, and it’s looking like it’s encountering additional support at 1.1400. Will the pair continue to gain momentum today? The euro fans can make a play for 1.1550 if the rising trendline support holds, while the euro bears can wait for a break below 1.1400 and drag the pair towards 1.1300.
After days of consolidating, USD/JPY finally picked a direction! Yesterday, the bulls flexed their muscles and managed to the 77.00 major psychological handle, which coincidentally lines up with the top of the range.
20:20 GMT August 26 The GlobalView.com D.O.G. investor purchasing power index is closing in North America at .5023, 0.29% from its Thursday close .
As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7216, +0.39% . The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.
Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is currently worth .1613, 0.67% .
Against crude, it is at 0.5264, +0.34% . The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is set against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro .
The fundamentals this week were negative for the US dollar, weakening the currency against some major counterparts, but performance of the greenback wasn’t that bad, considering all the pressure to the downside.
There were plenty of bad new for the dollar this week. Bad housing data, rising unemployment claims and slower that expected growth of the US economy. The week ended with the speech of Ben Bernanke, who hinted at possibility of additional stimulus without detailing an actual plan.
The dollar was dragged down by the unfavorable fundamentals and fell against the euro and commodity currencies (including the currencies of Canada, Australia and New Zealand). On the other hand, the dollar g